Dilution,Dividend Commitments and Liquidity: Do Dividend Changes Reflect Information Signaling?

We develop new tests of the dividend signaling hypothesis by focusing on the role of liquidity. We allow for two different types of signaling models: one where current dividends signal firm value and the objective is to prevent current dilution, and the other where commitments to future dividends constitute the signal. We find that the results differ by the sign of the dividend surprise. Signaling models of the commitment type explain the market reaction to negative dividend surprises. Interestingly, this result is significant only for the earlier sub-period in our sample due, perhaps, to the well-documented increase in institutional investors with longer horizons. The market reaction to positive dividend surprises, on the other hand, is shown to be consistent with the over-investment and wealth transfer hypotheses. We show that the failure of the signaling model for these firms could be due to lower costs of dividend increases.     

DIVIDENDS,UNCERTAINTY, AND UNDERWRITING COSTS UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION

This paper presents a two-period model in which dividends act as a signal of the stability of the firm's future cash flows. It is demonstrated that firms with more stable future cash flows pay a higher dividend. Dividends are a credible signal because the promise of a higher dividend, ceteris paribus, increases the probability that the firm will have to issue equity and pay underwriting costs. Empirically testable implications of the model relating to the cross-sectional determinants of the level of dividends are also discussed.     

Building customers' affective commitment towards retail banks: The role of CRM in each ‘moment of truth’

This paper argues that retail banks need to focus more strongly on components of their Customer Relationship Management (CRM) strategy that will generate customer affective commitment and lead to an increase in customer retention, share of wallet, and advocacy. It is suggested that affective commitment is generated during ‘moments of truth’ or episodes of interpersonal interaction between customers and bankers. As shown in social psychology, effective interpersonal interactions are a function of the assertiveness and affiliation demonstrated during the interaction. Applying this to retail banking, bankers should mine their databases to identify customers in terms of their levels of profitability and longevity, and should deliver levels of assertiveness and affiliation appropriate to each customer. Testable research propositions are developed regarding how affective commitment might evolve during a customer's tenure with a retail bank, when bankers should deliver assertiveness and/or affiliation to customers of differing longevity and profitability, and how these strategies to increase affective commitment will impact retention, share development, and advocacy. Overall, the call is to complement the emphasis on the use of high-tech CRM strategies that generate huge databases with a more high-touch strategy that will indicate to bankers how to interact with each individual customer.     

Making innovation happen in organizations: individual creativity mechanisms,organizational creativity mechanisms or both?

Marketing managers increasingly face a product innovation dilemma. Managers will have to sell more with fewer new products in an environment where new products are providing lower revenue yields. Therefore, understanding what drives successful innovation is of paramount importance. This paper examines the organizational innovation hypothesis that innovation is a function of individual efforts and organizational systems to facilitate creativity. Our model formulates creativity as a property of thought process that can be acquired and improved through instruction and practice. In this context, individual creativity mechanisms refer to activities undertaken by individual employees within an organization to enhance their capability for developing something, which is meaningful and novel within their work environment. Organizational creativity mechanisms refer to the extent to which the organization has instituted formal approaches and tools, and provided resources to encourage meaningfully novel behaviors within the organization. Using data collected from 634 organizations, we find support for this hypothesis. The results suggest that the presence of both individual and organizational creativity mechanisms led to the highest level of innovation performance. The results also suggest that high levels of organizational creativity mechanisms (even in the presence of low levels of individual creativity) led to significantly superior innovation performance than low levels of organizational and individual creativity mechanisms. The paper also presents managerial and academic implications. This study suggests that it is not enough for organizations to hire creative people and expect the innovation performance of the firm to be superior. Similarly, it is not enough for firms to emphasize management practices to enhance creativity and ignore individual mechanisms. Although it is true that doing either will improve innovation performance, doing both should lead to higher innovation levels. Our understanding of what and how creativity influences innovation performance can be greatly enhanced by additional research that integrates the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of creativity. Research that examines the role of team creativity efforts in enhancing innovation performance is also vital to an overall improved understanding of creativity, learning, and innovation within organizations.     

Causal Effect of Credit Guarantees for Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Evidence from Italy

We evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program, implemented in a large Italian region, that aimed to improve the access to credit of small and medium enterprises. Using unique microdata from a broad set of firms, we show that the policy increased the long-term loans for beneficiary firms, while the total volume of bank loans was unaffected. Furthermore, targeted firms benefited from a substantial decrease in interest rates. However, there is some evidence that firms are more likely to default as a consequence of the treatment. Conversely, the results do not point to any significant effect on investments.     

Cambodia: Rapid Growth with Weak Institutions

This paper examines Cambodia's socioeconomic development since the early 1990s peace settlement. The country's economic growth has arguably been the fastest among post‐conflict societies, driven by the credible restoration of peace and security, large public and private capital inflows, economic openness, reasonably prudent macroeconomic management, and a dynamic, integrating neighborhood. A legacy of history and small size is that the government has limited policy space, although this has not necessarily retarded economic development. We also highlight some key challenges, including rising inequality, uneven spatial development, weak institutions, and high levels of corruption. Looking forward, we highlight the importance of strengthening supply side capabilities, broadening the benefits of growth, and developing stronger institutions and property rights.     

RISKY DEBT MATURITY CHOICE IN A SEQUENTIAL GAME EQUILIBRIUM

In this paper the choice of risky debt maturity structure is analyzed in a sequential game framework. The focus is on the set of viable equilibria when there are no transaction costs associated with the choice of debt maturity structure. It is shown that when changes in firm value are independent over time, both short- and long-term debt pooling are Nash sequential equilibrium outcomes. However, only the short-term debt pooling outcome satisfies the universal divinity refinement. Relaxing the assumption of independent changes in firm value, it is demonstrated that a separating equilibrium in which higher-quality firms issue short-term debt and low-quality firms issue long-term debt may exist. Furthermore, conditions exist under which long-term debt pooling is the universally divine outcome.     

How important is intra-industry trade in trade growth?

Empirical work on intra-industry trade (IIT) is almost 30 years old. Initial research sought to identify if IIT was a significant share of total trade (TT). The Grubel-Lloyd (GL) index was widely used for this purpose. Interest has since shifted to the changing importance of IITover time. Using movements in the GL index to infer the importance of IIT over time is not only vague, but can be misleading. In this article, we measure the contributions of growth in net trade (NT) and IIT to the growth in TT. To understand changes in IIT over time, we also derive the contributions of imports and exports to the growth in TT, NT, and IIT. All our formulas are illustrated with data for 205 Australian manufacturing industries.     

Narrowing the development divide in ASEAN: the role of policy

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is divided. Most striking is the development divide that separates the newer members (the Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Vietnam countries) from the original ones (ASEAN‐6). More rapid growth in the CLV since the 1990s, driven by trade, investment, and other market reforms, has reduced these income differences. While the development divide has narrowed, huge gaps remain. Further narrowing of these gaps will require an increase in the speed and the breadth of policy reforms. A gaping hole in the policy landscape in ASEAN is the failure to address labour mobility adequately. Ongoing demographic transitions will result in greater labour outflow. The current policy void on labour migration not only limits the benefits from trade and investment liberalisation but also increases the cost of structural adjustment. Although rapid growth has resulted in convergence between countries, it has increased polarisation within countries. This can threaten social cohesion, as well as the sustainability of future growth. In order to make growth more inclusive, there is a need to invest more in education and health and to institute land reform. Apart from directly reducing social and asset inequities, such policies will produce a workforce more able to participate in the growth process and adapt to structural change.     

Do micro start-ups fuel job creation? Cross-country evidence from the DynEmp Express database

Exploiting a novel database recently built from national business registers by the OECD with the support of an international network of experts, this paper investigates the growth dynamics of micro-firms (employing less than ten workers) across 16 countries. Results show that only a small proportion of micro-firms manage to grow beyond ten employees, but those contribute disproportionately to overall job creation. Econometric analysis focusing in particular on the role of age confirms that young micro-firms—especially those below 3 years of age—are much more likely to grow above ten employees than older firms. These findings are remarkably stable over the three time periods considered (2001–2004, 2004–2007, and 2007–2010), i.e., also during the Great Recession.